University of Bayreuth, Press Release No. 061/2026, 6. August 2026
New study sheds light on a de facto state in eastern Congo
A Congolese-German research team involving the University of Bayreuth has examined how the AFC/M23 rebel movement governs the eastern Congolese city of Goma. The researchers show how, since taking control of the city in January 2025, the movement has gradually established administrative, security, taxation, and public-service structures—effectively creating a “de facto state.” The study provides important insights for humanitarian organizations, international institutions, and policymakers.
Street cleaning carried out by rebels and civil society groups in Goma. © Martin Doevenspeck
Why it matters
What happens to people’s everyday lives when an armed group takes lasting control of a city of more than a million inhabitants? Using Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo as a case study, the research shows that conflict is shaped not only by armed fighting, but also by the emergence of new systems of administration, security, taxation, and public-service provision.
The study aims to explain how this form of de facto rule operates and how it affects the daily lives of local residents. These insights are highly relevant to humanitarian organizations, international institutions, and policymakers working in conflict-affected areas or supporting peace processes. The findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of conditions in war zones and can help ensure that political and humanitarian responses are more closely aligned with the realities experienced by people on the ground.
The study is based on a three-month qualitative investigation involving 98 interviewees from the public administration, the business sector, civil society, religious communities, the media and academia. “The focus was on how the rebel movement administers the areas under its control and how the population perceives this form of rule,” says Martin Doevenspeck, Professor of Political Geography at the University of Bayreuth.
According to the interviews, the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)/M23 rebel movement has established a comprehensive system of territorial control. This includes security structures comprising the police, military and intelligence services; local administrative structures; tax and levy systems; border and migration controls; and dispute resolution mechanisms. “What we are seeing in Goma is a process of institutionalization that goes beyond mere military control and reveals elements of a ‘de facto state’,” says Doevenspeck.
The vast majority of respondents report a significant decline in robberies, murders and kidnappings, which had been widespread prior to the rebels’ arrival. At the same time, the study highlights ongoing concerns regarding arbitrary arrests, human rights violations and a climate of political intimidation.
In the economic sector, the study paints a mixed picture: while AFC/M23 has established its own tax and levy system and facilitated cross-border trade with Rwanda, the ongoing conflicts are placing a significant strain on the regional economy. The closure of Goma airport, restrictions in the banking sector and insecurity in key agricultural and mining areas are having a negative impact on economic development.
In terms of public services, the rebel movement regulates areas such as education, healthcare, water and electricity supply, and urban sanitation. In particular, improvements in public safety, waste disposal and energy supply are viewed positively by sections of the population. At the same time, there is a lack of long-term investment in infrastructure and public facilities.
Another focus of the study is on strategies for political legitimization. According to the study, the movement seeks to legitimize its rule through public gatherings, media outreach, social media and dialogue with religious and civil society actors. Nevertheless, its rule remains controversial even among the population of Goma: whilst some respondents see the movement as an alternative to a state administration perceived as weak, others regard AFC/M23 as an occupying force.
“Our study shows that AFC/M23 has taken over key state functions in Goma and is thus exercising a form of de facto sovereignty. At the same time, the region’s political future remains uncertain. Further developments depend largely on the course of the peace negotiations and the dynamics of the conflict in the region,” says Doevenspeck.
The study was produced in collaboration between the Pole Institute in Goma, the Centre de Recherches et d’Études sur les Conflits et la Paix dans la Région des Grands Lacs (CRECOPAX-GL) and the University of Bayreuth.
Original publication: Kaganda Mulume-Oderhwa, Nene Morisho, Martin Doevenspeck (2026) Institute: The Process of Institutionalisation of Territories under the AFC/M23 in Goma – Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Dossiers. Pole Institute, Goma.
Prof. Dr. Martin DoevenspeckPolitical Geography
Phone: +49 (0)921 / 55-2273
E-mail: doevenspeck@uni-bayreuth.de
Theresa HübnerDeputy Press & PR Manager
University of Bayreuth
University of Bayreuth
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