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Wertorientierte Steuerung von IT-Projekten

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Forschungsprojekt: Wertorientierte Steuerung von IT-Projekten

  • Hauptverantwortlicher

Prof. Dr. Gilbert Fridgen

  • Projektpartner

Prof. Dr. Hans Ulrich Buhl, Universität Augsburg

  • Förderer

Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft (DFG)

  • Vorstellung des Forschungsthemas

Ungefähr jede fünfte Investition in Informationstechnologie (IT) wird nach einer Studie des IT Governance Institute vor einer erfolgreichen Implementierung abgebrochen (ITGI 2011). Hauptgründe für diese hohen Abbruchraten sind über den Projektverlauf hinweg entstehende Risiken, die zu Budgetüberschreitungen, zeitlichen Verzögerungen sowie zu der nachträglichen Erkenntnis führen, dass erhoffte Ergebnisse nicht erreicht werden können (ITGI 2011). Die Insolvenz der Firma Schiesser, die u.a. auf die Einführung eines neuen Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)-Systems und daraus folgende Fehlbestellungen von Ware zurückzuführen ist (Kessler 2009), ist nur eines von vielen Beispielen für den wirtschaftlichen Schaden, der aus dem Scheitern von IT-Projekten resultieren kann. Um dieses Problem zu adressieren, hat sich die Wissenschaft zuvor primär mit der Entwicklung von Methoden zur ex ante Bewertung von IT-Projekten befasst. Allerdings kommen empirische Untersuchungen zu dem Ergebnis, dass viele Risiken erst im Projektverlauf entstehen. Damit ist eine alleinige ex ante Bewertung von IT-Projekten nicht ausreichend. Um im Projektverlauf entstehende Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und ein sinnvolles Gegensteuern zu ermöglichen, sind quantitative Methoden zur laufenden Projektsteuerung nötig. Daher wird im Rahmen dieses Forschungsantrags das Ziel verfolgt, quantitative Methoden zu entwickeln, die eine auf einer sinnvollen ex ante Bewertung basierende, laufende wertorientierte Projektsteuerung über den gesamten Zyklus eines IT-Projekts hinweg ermöglichen. Durch die entwickelten Projektsteuerungsmethoden können Unternehmen idealerweise das Scheitern von IT-Projekten sowie den daraus entstehenden wirtschaftlichen Schaden vermeiden. Gleichzeitig tragen sie dazu bei, den Erfolg von IT-Projekten durch die Möglichkeit kontinuierlicher Readjustierung – unter den jeweiligen Rahmenbedingungen – bestmöglich zu realisieren.

  • Publikationen mit Abstract

Wolf (2015): Assessing the Criticality of IT Projects in a Portfolio Context using Centrality Measures, 12th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI), Osnabrück, Germany, March 2015

Recent technological developments associated with changes in customer expectations have required continuous innovation from companies all over the world, thereby driving these companies’ IT portfolios towards increasing complexity and interdependency. Simultaneously, existing methods of IT portfolio management are not able to cope with this interconnectedness of IT projects, and too little research has been performed on appropriate risk assessments of dependency structures. By considering such dependency structures as IT project networks, we draw on centrality measures to assess the risk associated with inherent project dependencies. We examine different kinds of centrality measures, whether and to what extent they are able to depict characteristics specific to IT project networks. Based on the most appropriate measure, we derive criticality values indicating projects crucial to the IT portfolio's success. These criticality values should empower companies to successfully manage their IT portfolio.

Fridgen, Stepanek, Wolf (2015): Investigation of exogenous shocks in complex supply networks, International Journal of Production Research 53, 3, p. 1387-1408

Global supply networks that can be considered as interlaced supply chains are shaping existing economic structures. These supply networks are creating a high level of complexity. Simultaneously, the perceived number of exogenous shocks such as natural disasters is increasing. These exogenous shocks can directly or indirectly impact the participating companies of a supply network, which can also threaten the network as a whole. However, the complexity and opacity of today’s supply networks inhibits an accurate prediction and quantification of such impacts. Therefore, companies are unable to develop adequate safeguards, while existing mechanisms are insufficient. The objective of this study is to model, analyze, and quantify the impacts of exogenous shocks on supply networks. Therefore, we use a Petri Net-based approach, which enables a simulation of different supply network constellations, to assess the vulnerability to exogenous shocks. Furthermore, we include a detailed description of modeling and evaluation of the presented method. For an exemplary supply network, we simulate different intensities of an exogenous shock combined with different safety stocks of the entities. Statistical tests are conducted to verify the results. We thereby illustrate the results that could be yielded from a real-world application.

Beer, Wolf, Zare Garizy (2015): Systemic Risk in IT Portfolios – An Integrated Quantification Approach, 36th International Conference on Information Systems, Fort Worth, USA, December 2015

Recent trends in digitalization combined with continuous innovation pressure lead to an increasing number of IT project, which nowadays are accomplished within huge IT project portfolios. Even though numerous IT project and portfolio evaluation and planning approaches have been developed and applied in companies all over the world, about 25% of IT projects still fail, which may result in a global value destruction of approximately 900 billion USD. With one main reason been detected in the lack of transparency regarding dependencies within IT portfolios, this paper draws on graph theory to provide a rigor consideration of the systemic risk that is based on different kinds of direct and indirect dependencies within IT portfolios. Based on this assessment, it provides an integrated novel, and quantitative approach for IT portfolio evaluation that strives to mitigate IT project failures, as it helps decision makers to evaluate their IT portfolios more adequately.

Fridgen, Klier, Beer, Wolf (2015): Improving Business Value Assurance in Large-Scale IT Projects – A Quantitative Method Based on Founded Requirements Assessment; ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems (5) 3

The probability of IT project failures can be mitigated more successfully when discovered early. To support a more insightful management of IT projects, which may also facilitate an early detection of IT project failures, transparency regarding a project’s cash flows shall be increased. Therefore, an appropriate analysis of a project’s benefits, costs, requirements, their respective risks and interdependencies is inevitable. However, to date, in requirements engineering only few methods exist that appropriately consider these factors when estimating the ex ante project business case. Furthermore, empirical studies reveal that a lot of risk factors emerge during the runtime of projects why the ex ante valuation of IT projects even with respect to requirements seems insufficient. Therefore, using the Action Design Research approach, we design, apply, and evaluate a practicable method for value-based continuous IT project steering especially for large-scale IT projects.

Müller, Neumeier (2015): Manage Your ‘Blind Flight’ – The Optimal Timing for IT Project Re – Evaluation, 12th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI), Osnabrück, Germany, March 2015

As the value of an IT project can change over time, management is in “blind flight” about the state of the project until the project has been re-evaluated. As each evaluation causes costs, continuous evaluation is economically unreasonable. Nevertheless, the “blind flight” should not take too long, because the project value can considerably deviate from its initial estimation and high losses can occur. To trade off costs of re-evaluation and potential loss of project value, this paper will elaborate upon an economic model that is able to determine the optimal time until re-evaluation considering the risky cash flows of a project. Based on a simulation, we find that it makes good economic sense to optimize the interval of re-evaluation. Therefore, companies are able to avoid financial loss caused by evaluating too early as well as hazarding project value caused by evaluating too late.

  • Vorträge über Forschungsthema/Teilnahme an Konferenzen

Beiträge und Vorträge auf den Konferenzen (siehe „Publikationen mit Abstract“):
•    36th International Conference on Information Systems, Fort Worth, USA, December 2015 (VHB-JOURQUAL3: A)
•    12th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI), Osnabrück, Germany, March 2015 (VHB-JOURQUAL3: C)

  • Impact und Sichtbarkeit der Projekte

•    Zahlreiche Publikationen in A-, B- und C-gerankten wissenschaftlichen Zeitschriften und Tagungsbänden
     (VHB-JOURQUAL3, vgl. obige Auswahl)
•    Anwendung entwickelter Methoden in Praxisprojekten, u.a. in Kooperation mit der Projektgruppe Wirtschaftsinformatik des
     Fraunhofer FIT

  • Laufende Projekte

Forschungsprojekt „Wertorientierte Steuerung von IT-Projekten“ (2015 - 2016, DFG-Förderung FR 2987/2-1)

  • Abgeschlossene Projekte

n/a

Verantwortlich für die Redaktion: Univ.Prof.Dr. Claas Christian Germelmann

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